Beyond tools: building learning organisations to adapt to a changing climate

Executive summary: The focus of this VCCCAR Visiting Fellowship was participation in the project ‘Implementing tools to increase adaptive capacity in the community and natural resources management sectors’. This project aimed to improve understanding of the adaptation capabilities and needs of three types of government service providers and funded agencies (catchment management authorities, community sector organisations and primary care partnerships). The intention was to draw on my experience of working at the UK Climate Impacts Program (UKCIP) and with projects in Europe to inform the development of this project and the way it might support adaptation efforts in Victoria.UKCIP was a small organisation, varying in size over its life from 2 to a maximum of about 25 people. Given such limited capacity there was a tension between trying to address the need for tailored adaptation support and the capacity to deliver it. One response was to provide widespread support through downloadable tools and other web resources. However, it was quickly discovered that downloading a tool only gets you so far. Similarly, having access to accurate climate data and information about future climate projections was also seen as the obvious place to start in responding to a changing climate. However, it soon became clear that even with access to accurate, reliable, salient information there could still be no assumption that decision makers would take action to adapt and there was frequently a gap between the quite high general awareness of climate change within an organisation (and an understanding of how it could affect their core business) and the implementation of actions to respond to it. This raises key questions about availability of usable information and extent of agreement on potential responses to climate risks.To be usable, information should relate to existing decision making processes and the key priorities of the organisation. It should also be locally relevant. In discussions with Victorian organisations, people wanted to know how to translate more general information about climate change into useful messages for everyday practice and service delivery. It is clearly important to start with current concerns and overlay on these the likely impacts of changing climate. Most future climate impacts are often not yet seen as urgent or important and there is a need for better coordination of users, demonstration projects, activities that bridge the gap between providers and users, and demonstration of how climate information can improve decision making.&nbsp

Plausible responses to the threat of rapid sea-level rise for the Thames Estuary

This paper considers the perceptions and responses of selected stakeholders to a scenarion of rapid rise in sea-level due to the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which could produce a global rise in sea-level of 5 to 6 metres. Through a process of dialogue involving one-to one interviews and a one-day policy exercise, we addressed influences on decision-making when information is uncertain and our ability to plan, prepare for and implement effective ways of coping with this extreme scenario. Through these interactions we hoped to uncover plausible responses to the scenario and identify potential weaknesses in our current flood management approaches to dealing with such an occurrence. By undertaking this exploratory exercise we hoped to find out whether this was a feasible way to deal with such a low probability but high consequence scenario. It was the process of finding a solution that interested us rather than the technical merits of one solution over another. We were not intending to produce definitive set of recommendations on how to respond but to gain insights into the process of making a decision, specifically what influences it and what assumptions are made.Sea level rise, London

Faint Infrared Flares from the Microquasar GRS 1915+105

We present simultaneous infrared and X-ray observations of the Galactic microquasar GRS 1915+105 using the Palomar 5-m telescope and Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer on July 10, 1998 UT. Over the course of 5 hours, we observed 6 faint infrared (IR) flares with peak amplitudes of $\sim 0.3-0.6$ mJy and durations of $\sim 500-600$ seconds. These flares are associated with X-ray soft-dip/soft-flare cycles, as opposed to the brighter IR flares associated with X-ray hard-dip/soft-flare cycles seen in August 1997 by Eikenberry et al. (1998). Interestingly, the IR flares begin {\it before} the X-ray oscillations, implying an ``outside-in'' origin of the IR/X-ray cycle. We also show that the quasi-steady IR excess in August 1997 is due to the pile-up of similar faint flares. We discuss the implications of this flaring behavior for understanding jet formation in microquasars.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Learning from organisational embedding for climate resilience

The term ‘resilience’, which is integral to the UK Climate Resilience Programme (UKCR), has been used increasingly in academic, practice and public discourse around climate change, and crises more generally. The term’s appeal comes from its ability to frame crises not as uncontrollable and uncertain phenomena to be feared, but as challenges over which one can triumph, with the potential for improving society

Investing in teachers

This evaluation compares evidence from the literature with Australia’s experience in supporting teacher development in a range of developing countries. It uses case studies to good effect in explaining choices made, the extent to which expectations were or were not met, and the lessons for future Australian assistance for teacher development. The evaluation found mixed results. In cooperation with governments and other donors, Australia has made positive contributions, such as improving teacher frameworks and curriculums, and training teachers through a range of interventions. However, there is room to improve—for example, in enhancing policy, strengthening analysis and negotiating new investments—so teacher education and training will result in better teaching and learning in schools. A significant limitation, acknowledged in this evaluation report, is insufficient attention to measuring learning outcomes. Follow-on evaluations involving the Office of Development Effectiveness are expected to help fill this gap

Observations of Arp 220 using Herschel-SPIRE: An Unprecedented View of the Molecular Gas in an Extreme Star Formation Environment

We present Herschel SPIRE-FTS observations of Arp~220, a nearby ULIRG. The FTS continuously covers 190 -- 670 microns, providing a good measurement of the continuum and detection of several molecular and atomic species. We detect luminous CO (J = 4-3 to 13-12) and water ladders with comparable total luminosity; very high-J HCN absorption; OH+, H2O+, and HF in absorption; and CI and NII. Modeling of the continuum yields warm dust, with T = 66 K, and an unusually large optical depth of ~5 at 100 microns. Non-LTE modeling of the CO shows two temperature components: cold molecular gas at T ~ 50 K and warm molecular gas at T ~1350 K. The mass of the warm gas is 10% of the cold gas, but dominates the luminosity of the CO ladder. The temperature of the warm gas is in excellent agreement with H2 rotational lines. At 1350 K, H2 dominates the cooling (~20 L_sun/M_sun) in the ISM compared to CO (~0.4 L_sun/M_sun). We found that only a non-ionizing source such as the mechanical energy from supernovae and stellar winds can excite the warm gas and satisfy the energy budget of ~20 L_sun/M_sun. We detect a massive molecular outflow in Arp 220 from the analysis of strong P-Cygni line profiles observed in OH+, H2O+, and H2O. The outflow has a mass > 10^{7} M_sun and is bound to the nuclei with velocity < 250 km/s. The large column densities observed for these molecular ions strongly favor the existence of an X-ray luminous AGN (10^{44} ergs/s) in Arp 220.Comment: Accepted in ApJ on September 1, 201

The Australia Telescope Large Area Survey: Spectroscopic catalogue and radio luminosity functions

The Australia Telescope Large Area Survey (ATLAS) has surveyed 7 square degrees of sky around the Chandra Deep Field South and the European Large Area ISO Survey-South 1 fields at 1.4 GHz. ATLAS aims to reach a uniform sensitivity of 10 μJy beam−1 rms over the entire region with first data release currently reaching ∼ 30 μJy beam−1 rms. Here we present 466 new spectroscopic redshifts for radio sources in ATLAS as part of our optical follow-up programme. Of the 466 radio sources with new spectroscopic redshifts, 142 have star-forming optical spectra, 282 show evidence for active galactic nuclei (AGN) in their optical spectra, 10 have stellar spectra and 32 have spectra revealing redshifts, but with insufficient features to classify. We compare our spectroscopic classifications with two mid-infrared diagnostics and find them to be in broad agreement. We also construct the radio luminosity function for star-forming galaxies to z = 0.5 and for AGN to z = 0.8. The radio luminosity function for star-forming galaxies appears to be in good agreement with previous studies. The radio luminosity function for AGN appears higher than previous studies of the local AGN radio luminosity function. We explore the possibility of evolution, cosmic variance and classification techniques affecting the AGN radio luminosity function. ATLAS is a pathfinder for the forthcoming Evolution Map of the Universe (EMU) survey and the data presented in this paper will be used to guide EMU's survey design and early science papers

Effectiveness of a coordinated support system linking public hospitals to a health coaching service compared with usual care at discharge for patients with chronic low back pain: protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Although many people with chronic low back pain (LBP) improve following conservative treatment, one in five will experience worsening symptoms after discharge from treatment and seek health care again. The current LBP clinical care pathway in many health services lacks a well-integrated, systematic approach to support patients to remain physically active and self-manage their symptoms following discharge from treatment. Health coaching can support people to improve physical activity levels and may potentially reduce health care utilisation for LBP. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of introducing a coordinated support system (linking hospital outpatient physiotherapy services to a public health coaching service) at discharge from LBP treatment, on the future use of hospital, medical, and health services for LBP, compared with usual care provided at discharge. Methods Three hundred and seventy-four adults with chronic non-specific LBP will be recruited from the outpatient physiotherapy departments of public hospitals in New South Wales, Australia. Participants will be individually randomised to a support system (n = 187) or usual care group (n = 187). All participants will receive usual care provided at discharge from treatment. Participants allocated to the support system will also receive up to 10 telephone-based health coaching sessions, delivered by the Get Healthy Service®, over a 6-month period. Health coaches will monitor and support participants to improve physical activity levels and achieve personal health-related goals. The primary outcome is the total number of encounters with hospital, medical, and health services for LBP, at 12 months from baseline. A within-trial economic evaluation will quantify the incremental costs and benefits of the support system from a health system perspective, to support reimbursement decision making. Discussion This study will establish the effect of a coordinated support system, introduced at discharge from treatment, on the future use of hospital, medical, and health services for LBP and various health outcomes. Conclusion Innovative community-driven solutions to support people with chronic LBP after discharge from treatment are urgently needed. Study findings will help inform health care policy and clinical practice in Australia

Genetic effects on gene expression across human tissues

Characterization of the molecular function of the human genome and its variation across individuals is essential for identifying the cellular mechanisms that underlie human genetic traits and diseases. The Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project aims to characterize variation in gene expression levels across individuals and diverse tissues of the human body, many of which are not easily accessible. Here we describe genetic effects on gene expression levels across 44 human tissues. We find that local genetic variation affects gene expression levels for the majority of genes, and we further identify inter-chromosomal genetic effects for 93 genes and 112 loci. On the basis of the identified genetic effects, we characterize patterns of tissue specificity, compare local and distal effects, and evaluate the functional properties of the genetic effects. We also demonstrate that multi-tissue, multi-individual data can be used to identify genes and pathways affected by human disease-associated variation, enabling a mechanistic interpretation of gene regulation and the genetic basis of diseas

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury